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Common Question Topics:
Bankruptcy
Credit
Rating
High
Production/Inventory Unit Costs
Interest
Expense
Lawsuits
Miscellaneous
Expense
NPV - Movement of
Order of Events in the Simulation
Other
Paid In
Plant
Hours - losing
Purchasing
Plant Hours
Raw Materials Futures - higher than at market?
Repurchasing
Stock
Repurchasing Stock or Dividend Issue, which comes first?
Second
Shift
Special
Loan
Stock
Price - Movement of
Taxes - How are they determined
Recent Questions
How will my subsidiary affect my performance? At the
end of the simulation the NPV of the subsidiary is merged
with the NPV of the parent firm, see the calculation in the
chapter
on subsidiaries.
What is a wholesale order? Wholesale orders are orders
placed with your firm through contracts. If you didn't make
contracts with another firm, but have wholesale orders, check
your executed contracts list for the quarter for more information.
Wholesale sales are orders placed with your firm through contracts.
Sales made on these orders are included in your total sales
figure for the quarter.
What Affects NPV?
NPV measures the ability of the firm to create wealth for
the stockholder over time. Net present value = present value
(including stock and dividend value) less stockholder investment
in period zero. For more details see: http://www.globalview.org/student_files/adv_files/txt_npv.htm
Can I sell back more than 10% of outstanding shares?
No. The simulation rules restrict you to 10% repurchase per
quarter. Therefore, develop and implement a buyback plan now
if you want to decrease your shares.
Which decision variables do I change and which do I leave
in place each quarter? http://www.globalview.org/student_files/adv_files/txt_decisions.htm
My Market Share is TOO SMALL!!!
One thing to keep in mind when determining what your real
market share is = contract sales from other firm in your market
group. These may distort total market share, making it seem
larger than in fact it is. Check out the link below to see
what firms in your market group sold product to the wholesale
market and how much.
Firm
to Firm Contract Listing -- Also helpful to manufacturers
calculating wholesale demand
I can't get my product moving!!!
Can't get your product out the door? You've got to have a
good marketing mix (expenditures that are made over consecutive
quarters in all marketing areas). Order a special report and
check out your sales rep compensation in relation to other
firms in your market group. Are you spending on QUALITY CONTROL?
QC is an element of marketing, but because it is in the "budget"
decision folder, it can get passed over. Pricing relative
to other firms in your market group is also VERY important.
Remember, markets are developing as firms grow and cumulative
marketing expenditures for the market group add up. If you're
only operating in one area, consider trying out other markets,
the markets will grow differently as the simulation progresses
(be sure you're reading "The Boss" to keep an eye
macroeconomic trends).
Bankruptcy:
Bankruptcy has officially occurred when a firm's Total Equity
figure on the balance sheet equals zero. This means
that the firm has lost all of their investor's money and are
owned entirely by creditors. Creditors will often step
in at this time and seize assets, which will then be sold
through bid process in contracts. Bankruptcy notices
are made public in "The
Boss" (the simulation newspaper), after both the firm
and the professor have been notified.
Solutions:
The best solution is, of course, early detection of the problem.
Monitor your firm's total equity figure each quarter.
Stock price usually indicates a problem, but is not always
an accurate measure. If your firm does go bankrupt,
the best solution is to start over in a new firm; where, having
learned from past mistakes, the team can begin in a strong
position. On special occasions AGV will offer a bankrupt
firm a deal through Venture Capitalists. You may request
help from a venture capitalist if you feel you cannot escape
bankruptcy and do not want to give up on the firm. The
deal made through the Venture Capitalist usually includes
an exchange of cash, or the payment of debts, for a private
off-line purchase of stock in the firm. This does not
always save a firm doing poorly.
Text Review: Total
Equity / Bankruptcy
Credit
Rating - First Quarter of Operations
: The question is often asked, "Why is our credit rating
so bad after our first quarter? We have a reasonable debt
to equity and a reasonable current ration." There are
two principle reasons why your firm's credit rating may look
bad in the first quarter of operations.
- In order to purchase
units from Peacock Industries in quarter 1, year 1, your
firm has to take out a special loan. This is due to the
fact that contract orders are put through prior to any other
decision for the quarter. This emergency financing
has a large impact on your credit rating.
- In addition to emergency
lending, most firms have a loss in their first quarter
These two factors taken
together will often more credit rating close to or over a
3 in the first quarter. You will probably never achieve
a prime rate of 1 but you will, over several quarters of consistent
earnings and good debt to equity figures, move closer to this
rating.
Special Loan:
Anytime you generate a special loan credit rating is affected
dramatically. Even if your debt to equity ratio at the end
of the quarter is sound, you may find that your credit rating
is in bad shape if you had to take out a special loan during
the quarter. This is something to consider when buying goods
through contracts (which can often generate a special loan)
Text Review:
Credit
Rating / Contracts
Run Time / Debt
to Equity
High
Production/Inventory Unit Costs: A team sometimes
finds that the Inventory Unit Cost or the Production Unit Cost
of their product (as shown on the first page of the firm report)
is excessive, perhaps even higher than their sales price.
They want to know why and what to do about product which costs
more than the firm can sell it for.
Answer:
The most probable cause is subcontracting. The team may
have miscalculated the number of units their plant could produce.
They may have forgotten to take into account that Product 1
and Product 2 must share available plant hours. They may
have forgotten to add a second shift, but scheduled second shift
production. There is no way to recoup the money already
lost in the mistake. The firm may, however, be allowed
to work out a deal with AGV whereby they would sell the high
priced product to Peacock Industries (the administratively run
firm which sells and, on rare occasions, buys from teams in
the simulation). The ability to resell to Peacock Inc.
depends upon professor permission and upon the circumstances
surrounding the error.
Text Review: Inventory
Unit Cost / Production
Unit Cost / Plant
Size: Labor Hours available on Shift1 / Labor
Hours required to manufacture 1 unit / Second
Shift / Overtime
and Subcontracting / Stage
1 and Stage 2
Interest
Expense: Students sometimes have difficulty calculating
their interest expense. Interest on the income statement
consists of the following:
1. Interest
on last quarter's Short Term Loan. At the beginning
of the simulation the rate is 2.3% quarterly, this goes up
or down depending upon the firm's credit rating.
2. Interest on Beginning
Special Loan (automatically given when a firm's cash falls
below $10,000) The rate is 9% quarterly.
3. Interest on Long
Term Loan is paid in the quarter the loan is issued.
If a firm borrows $100000.00 in Q1, they will be charged interest
for that loan in quarter 1. At the start of the simulation
the rate is 3% quarterly.
4. Interest on Bonds.
The quarterly charge is 2.5% per quarter.
5. Amortized Bond
Discount. The quarterly rate on the discount is 5% per
quarter.
Probable Cause of
Miscalculation: The primary cause of confusion
tends to be the interest on special loans generated through
contracts. Contracts occur prior to the main simulation.
This means, that if your team does not have cash to cover
contract purchases, a special loan is automatically assigned.
When the main program is run next, this special loan is stated
as a beginning special loan. Thus, the loan is paid
off during the quarter (given enough $ is generated) and interest
is charged, yet the special loan does not appear on the Income
Statement. It appears on the Cash Flow report as a beginning
special loan. Recheck your calculations once more, being
sure to include all interest. Interest on Bonds and
the Amortized Bond Discount are often overlooked as well.
Question:
"Why doesn't interest expense on the cash flow match
the income statement?"
Answer: The cash flow statement does not show Amortized
Bond Discount interest because this is not a cash matter
Text Review:
Contracts
Run Time / Interest
Lawsuits:
Most lawsuits within the simulation arise out of contract
miscommunications. Financial loss can be great
for firm(s) of a failed contract. You must have written
proof of contract agreements. AGV cannot rule on cases
without proper documentation. If a verbal agreement
is made within a chat room, advise firms that they should
request or send written documentation after the discussion
is concluded.
Solution: Lawsuits
should be referred to AGV. AGV will assign a law
office to handle your case. Hiring a law office will cost
the firm money and time.
Text Review: The
Rules and Regulations
Miscellaneous
Expense: Students who keep a keen eye on their income
statement often have trouble calculating their miscellaneous
expense. Following is a list of the Miscellaneous Expense
components:
1. Hiring new
sales reps $12000 each
2. Hiring trainees $3000
each
3. Assigning trainees $3000
each
4. Transferring sales reps
$3000 each
5. Cost of changing second
shift $2000 for each 10% added or $1000 for each 10% eliminated
6. Administrator's charges
7. Purchase of special
report
8. Contract gains and losses
on the sales of raw materials and plant hours
9. Seller's contract commissions
10. Consulting Contracts
Probable Causes of
Miscalculations:
- Hiring new sales
reps can be a problem if the team is not monitoring
their sales reps from quarter to quarter. Sometimes
sales reps quit, if they are not receiving enough compensation
relative to pay of other firms in the market group.
When this occurs a message to this effect appears at the
bottom of the team's firm report. Because the team
must enter the total number of sales reps desired in their
decision set, a new sales rep will automatically be hired
if they are short.
- Administrator's
charges will usually be announced to a firm, i.e. an
award from a lawsuit etc... However, some firms forget to
take this into account.
- Sale of raw materials
or plant hours: Most firms are not aware that
when they sell raw materials or plant hours through contracts,
they must account for any gain or loss on the original value.
This accounting occurs as a miscellaneous expense.
This is most often a point of frustration for students which
sell plant hours cheaply in an effort to collect fast cash.
- Seller's contract
Commissions (Fees): Firms which sell heavily through
contracts may be surprised by their miscellaneous charge.
This is because they have forgotten to figure in contract
fees. The seller always pays the fee on a contract.
Fees are as follows:
6% on sale
of finished goods
5% on sale
of raw materials
20% on sale of plant hours
2% on consulting
services
20% on plant hours transferred
between areas
3% on raw materials
transferred between areas
Text Review:
Miscellaneous
Expense / Sales
Rep Decision Variable / Sales
Rep Figure / Special
Contract Considerations
Net
Present Value: The question most often asked is "What
determines NPV?"
Answer:
NPV uses each of the last 4 share prices (plus all dividends
ever issued) to calculate PV. NPV is determined by measuring
the PV relative to the firm's starting price, that is to
their IPO (initial public offering). NPV is reported in
dollars and cents. A zero value means stockholders received
exactly what they were after: a 5% per quarter return. An
NPV of .76 is read as, the firm produced $.76 more in value
than the stockholder expected over the total time the firm
has been operating. See the NPV section of the simulation
manual for complete calculations and present value table.
Question:
"Why did my NPV rank go down while my competitor's
went up? My stock went up more than their stock did, yet
they gained on me, why?
Answer: The firm with the higher IPO had larger growth
relative to their IPO. The concept in NPV stock ranking
that is often missed is that the current quarter's stock
vlue does not replace last quarter's stock value. It replaces
the stock vlue that is 4 quarter old (last year's stock
price). Thus, if you look only at the stock price increase
from last quarter and find the gain, you are using the wrong
data. You need to compare this quarter's price to last year's
stock price and see if they made more than a 20% return.
If not, then NPV is going to delcine even though the stock
made a sizeable gain in the current quarter.
Hint:
Successful firms that have developed considerable financial
power can unleash that power through the payment of dividends.
As long as dividends don't disturb critical internal ratios
such as debt/equity, the dividend payment along with a moderate
to storng growth in EPS will propel those firms up the NPV
rankings. NPV recognizes that stockholder recieve value
with both increasing stock prices and with dividends.
Text
Review: NPV
Order
of Events in the Simulation
Contracts
are put through first, then main decisions are run.
All cash is paid out for contracts, or comes in from contracts.
If you are a firm purchasing finished goods, make sure that
you have an ending cash balance from the previous quarter
to purchase goods through contracts. If you have no cash
on hand a special loan is generated. Special loans carry
a 9% quarterly interest rate.
CONTRACT
EXCEPTION:
the seller of finished goods will deliver and receive payment
for goods during the quarter. This allows the producer of
goods to produce during the quarter to meet contract demand.
It also allows contracts sales to be properly counted in
income statement revenue. The same rules apply to contract
cash inflow as to other other sales revenue inflow - 60%
to cash and 40% to accounts receivable. Bad debts can occur
and are influenced by your firms credit policy.
Simulation:
All incoming cash for the quarter is compared against all
outgoing cash to determine your ending cash figure on the
balance sheet. If you do not have enough cash to cover outgoing
then you will be given a special loan.
Repurchase
of Stock:
Repurchase/issue of stock occurs first in the simulation.
So if you issue a dividend, the dividend is paid out on
the amount of shares remaining after the repurchase or issue.
Other
Paid In: Other Paid in is an account on your
balance sheet. The most commonly asked question is,
"What does the account consist of?"
Answer:
When you sell stock $1 per share is recorded in the "Common
Stock" account. Any excess over $1 is recorded as "Other
Paid In". A repurchase of stock also has an affect
on this account. A repurchase reduces "Common Stock"
by $1 and also reduces "Other Paid In" by an average of paid
in capital per share.
Text Review:
Other
Paid In / +
or - Common Stock Decision Variable
Plant
Hours - losing. A common question for manufacturing firms
is "Why am I losing so many plant hours each quarter
and what can I do about it?"
Answer: Plant hours are lost through inadequate maintenance
budgets. Poor maintenance over time has cummulative impact
upon your plant. Hours cannot be recouped once lost but must
be rebuilt. If you run a second shift you need to consider
this in your maintenance budget. Your industry specific chapter
can give you an idea of what you should be spending for maintenance
on your plant. If you do find large losses occuring immediately
overcompensate in the following quarter and thereafter until
losses come under control.
Text Review: Scent
Idustry - Maitenance / Maintenance
Decision Variable
Purchasing
Plant Hours: Plant hours can be purchased from
other firms through Contracts. If a firm goes bankrupt,
the assets of the firm, including plant capacity is often
put up for bid. The most commonly asked question concerning
a purchase of plant hours is, "Will these hours be available
for production in the same quarter they are purchased?"
Answer: The
answer is yes, unless you are otherwise notified by AGV administrators.
Text Review:
Contract
Decision Entry
Raw
Material Futures: The most fequently asked question is,
"Why does the report show Futures prices listed as higher
than at market prices?"
Answer: You are comparing the wrong numbers. You should
be looking at last quarters future prices and comparing those
against this quarter's at market prices. Futures raw materials
are always less than at market prices in the coming quarter.
Text Review: Raw
Materials
Repurchasing
Stock: Teams are restricted to a 10% per quarter
repurchase of outstanding shares. This limit is only
lifted if AGV administrators have made an error. The
limit is in place to ensure that firms do not play end of
the game strategies just to increase NPV ranking. The
same is true of dividend issues which are limited to a $.50
increase per quarter.
The
question most often asked by teams which repurchase stock
is, "Why did our repurchase cost us more/less than our ending
stock price of last quarter?" In other words, why did
the price vary, why wasn't I able to predict exactly what
the repurchase price would be? The second question most
often asked is, "Why didn't our stock price increase with
the buyback?"
Answer:
The program uses the closing price of last quarter and simulates
an immediate buyback of the stock at the beginning of the
quarter. Therefore, in almost all cases the repurchase price
is the last quarter's closing price plus a premium.
The closing price for the quarter in which the repurchase
was made depends upon the trend in earnings per share and
the debt to equity ratio. We advise that teams check
their debt to equity ratio to see whether it is above 1/1.
If so, then the team is placing shareholders in a more risky
position and decreasing the value of the stock.
Buying
back stock is not a guaranteed way to increase stock price.
If a firm goes into debt to repurchase stocks, shifting their
debt/equity ratio too dramatically the stock may actually
fall in value. Please refer to the discussion on stock
price below.
Question: Order of dividend
issue versus stock issue/repurchase
Answer: Stock repurchase or issue happens first.
Thus, you will be paying dividends on the number of shares
after your new issue or repurchase of shares for the quarter.
Text Review:
Earnings
per Share / Capital
Structure / NPV
Second
Shift: A second shift is a night shift which
uses the same physical plant as the day shift workers.
The questions most commonly asked concerning a second shift
are: "Is the second shift available for use in the same quarter
it's added?" and "Can the second shift be increased more than
100%?"
Answer:
The Second Shift is available in the same quarter your firm
makes a decision to add it. Note that there are costs
involved in hiring a second shift and also in firing a second
shift. A second shift cannot be increased more than
100% of the day shift. You're are limited by the size
of your plant. Second Shift workers will work, as does
the day shift, until 125% of normal is reached, at which time
excess scheduled production will automatically be handed out
to subcontractors who are very costly.
Text Review:
Capacity
Decision Variables / Second
Shift / Overtime
and Subcontracting / Stage
1 and Stage 2
Special
Loan: Special loans can be very painful for teams.
With an interest of 9% quarterly, it can be hard to escape
the effects. The two questions most often asked are,
"Where did this loan come from?" and "How can I get rid of
it?"
Answer:
Special loans are generated automatically whenever a firm's
cash balance dips below $10000. Contract purchases often
create a surprising special loan, especially if the firm in
question has not had a great deal of experience in making
contracts. Because contracts go through before the main
simulation runs, there is often a cash shortage as firms stock
up with goods prior to seeing the inflow of sales revenue.
Over scheduling production can also cause cash shortages,
if subcontracting occurs. Units produced, in this case,
can be more costly than the sales price.
In order to pay down a large special loan a firm should consider
becoming more liquid. Review the income statement.
Perhaps cuts in expenditures can be made. Factoring
receivables can also help. Selling assets through contracts
is another option, if your firm has too many plant hours,
too many raw materials, or units of product, etc... in stock.
AGV can sometimes help to facilitate such a sale, if the situation
is desperate. Issuing more stock may also be an option,
or taking out less costly loans. If you feel the firm
has little or no chance of climbing out of debt, seek assistance
from AGV.
Text Review: Interest
on Special Loan / Contract
Special Considerations / Factor
Receivables Decision Variable / Factor
Cost /
Stock
Price: The question most commonly asked about
stock price is, "How is it modified?" What determines
its movement? Firms with an excellent quarter or two
of earnings may wonder why their stock is moving up so slowly.
Answer:
Stock prices are determined through an intrinsic model, that
is by a set of statistics as opposed to the setting of prices
by supply and demand for shares in the market place.
Share price is driven by what was (the history of the firm)
and what is (current analysis of the firm and the financial
environment). There are 2 powerful ratios that dominate the
share price calculation:
- Current debt/equity
ratio but only if it exceeds 1-to-1, as it will draw down
share price as the ratio increases. This ratio is
a proxy for financial risk in a firm's capital structure.
- Earnings per share
(EPS). Firms with more shares must produce more earnings
in order for the stock price to remain equal with firms
that issue fewer shares. A firm with fewer shares
but the same amount of capital (secured in part through
debt) will find stock price to be more volatile since earnings
and losses will be magnified over the fewer shares.
Firms with all equity (no debt) will have little chance
of bankruptcy and little chance of being in the top stock
performers. EPS history is very important variable
in stock valuation and caries a significant weight in the
current + historical EPS analysis. One quarter's sudden
change in EPS will not suddenly boost or radically damage
share price.
Other ratios, such as
credit rating and market share changes have minor affects
on stock price but could have longer term impact on EPS which
will have a direct impact on share price. The movement of
the stock market index can have some impact. As the index
remains stable there is little influence. However, as the
index fluctuates, the larger the impact and the larger the
weight in the total stock price determination.
Question: Why did
our stock price barely gain on our competitor when we had
over $1.30 earnings per share advantage this quarter
Answer: It is possible
that a team will post a $-.14 EPS in one quarter. Another
team in the same quarter will post a $1.23 EPS. What will
happen to stock price? Students expect the $-.14 EPS firm
to collapse in price and the $1.23 EPS firm to skyrocket.
However, both firms are pulling all their history with them
to be used in predicting future earnings which sets stock
prices. The more recent history is measured to be more important
but historical EPS also contributes. Thus, the low EPS firm
may only have a $.01 decrease in its share price due to its
excellent history and the $1.23 EPS firm (if it had a more
volatile and poor record) may only have a $.02 increase in
share price. The simulation is biased, as in real life, to
pay a stock premium for solid and consistent growth in earnings
with few surprises.
A good strategy to raise
share price is to repurchase shares, GIVEN the firm has sufficient
cash to buy back shares at the know reported price plus a
premium, and a debt to equity ratio that can withstand a large
reduction in the equity section. Thus, only strong and
financially healthy firms can effectively enact such a strategy.
Dividends would also follow a similar strategy. Dividends
carefully administered can raise share price and at the same
time, directly add value to the shareholder as measured in
the NPV ranking.
Text Review:
Earnings
per Share / Debt
to Equity / Credit
Rating / NPV
/ Capital
Structure
Taxes:
The most frequently asked question is, "How are taxes
calculated?"
Answer: Taxes, in general, are around 48% of net income
for the quarter. The first $20000 is taxed by 22%. Losses
in any one quarter carry forward indefinitely.
Text Review:
Income Taxes
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